AGARTALA / DHAKA, July 14 (TIWN): Tripura, Assam, Bangladesh, Myanmar region may be hit by a huge earthquake - although not imminent - that could reach a magnitude of nine, researchers have warned.The scientists said they have new evidence of increasing strain building beneath Bangladesh where two tectonic plates underlie the vast delta of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers.The researchers are not forecasting an imminent great earthquake but said it was an "under-appreciated hazard"."Some of us have long suspected this hazard but we didn't have the data and a model," said lead author Michael Steckler, geophysicist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in the US. "Now we have the data and a model and we can estimate the size," he noted. Magnitude 9 earthquake in Richter scale will destroy Bangladesh, Tripura and surrounding regions. So far Tripura Govt is reluctant to comply with the safety direction to counter earthquake like natural calamity. In year 2016 alone, Tripura experienced multiple earthquakes ranging from 4.6 to high 6.9 (6.9 earthquake on wednesday, April 13, 2016 at 7.25pm) in Richter scale. Latest Tripura earthquake took place last month on June 27, 2016 at 4.7 Richter scale.

Tripura is on the high risk of massive earthquake as it is situated on seismic zone-­V and has probability of occurrence earthquakes measuring more than 8 magnitudes on Richter scale. Though, it indicates massive collateral damage in the form of casualties and mass injuries but the state government is not taking any preventive measure to manage in case of any natural disaster.

A recent survey found that the capital city- Agartala is uniquely positioned to render massive physical damage to the residents in any natural calamities like earthquakes above 6.5 magnitudes on the Richter scale occurs.

Though, the state government has already identified 2,000 vulnerable buildings including Ujjayanta Palace, abode of former princely rulers of the state in the heart of Agartala Town, Raj Bhavan, Neer Mahal, a lake palace built by Tripura’s last king Bir Bikram Kishore Manikya in 1933, MBB College and a large number of school buildings, but no proper preventive measure was adopted by the state government till date.

The state administration and concerned department is maintaining to arrange mock drills to aware the people about the preventive measures to be taken at the time of any disaster, but all these insufficient trainings may go to vain as most of these buildings may completely collapse at the time of earthquake.

It was December 2008 when National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has decided to retrofit a hospital and a school building in Tripura considering a possible high intensity earthquake in Northeast. But asked the state govt to conduct a structural safety audit on existing constructions in the state before go for retrofitting he old buildings.

Except Ujjyanta Palace and Neermahal, Tripura government could not do the safety audit. Instead in the name of retrofitting the complete historical structure of Maharani Tulshibati School, U K Academy and MBB College so far has been demolished.

Endless list of dumb exercises by different Govt Departments under the poor leadership of Chief Minister Manik Sarkar keeps growing in Tripura.

The historical monument of IGM Hospital, which was planned by Royal family to make a medical college in last century, the overwhelmed left architects entirely destroyed the beautiful structure of historical V M Hospital and now it is a white building in the heart of Agartala without minimum health care facilities.

The state government introduced Geographic Information System (GIS) to study environment and mapping the state’s residential status while a separate regulation has enacted for building and construction in thickly populated areas and the permission of multi-storied structure has already been canceled. But all GIS are now malfunctioned due to apathy of authorities .

The Dauki Fault which follows the international border of India and Bangladesh in Meghalaya passes though northern sections of Tripura. The other major threat is from the Madhupur Fault in Bangladesh. However, it must be stated that proximity to faults does not necessarily translate into a higher hazard as compared to areas located further away, as damage from earthquakes depends on numerous factors such as subsurface geology as well as adherence to the building codes.

According to US based GSHAP data, the states of Mizoram & Tripura fall in a region of high to very high hazard. As per the 2002 Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) map, both states fall in Zone V. 

The Geologists considered that Tripura has high probability of earthquake because sedimentary rock underneath and most area are under 1st order topography of marine origin.

As per US scientists, the destruction could come not only from the direct result of shaking but changes in the courses of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers and in the level of land already perilously close to sea level.

The newly identified threat, described in the journal Nature Geoscience, is a subduction zone where one section of the earth's crust, or a tectonic plate, is slowly thrusting under another. 

Scientists knew of the plate boundary in and around Bangladesh but many assumed it to be sliding only horizontally near the surface, where it sometimes causes fairly large but less damaging earthquakes in areas that are not as densely populated. 

"We can't say a scale 9 magnitude earthquake is  imminent or another 500 years. But we can definitely see it building," Steckler said.

James Ni, a seismologist at the New Mexico State University, said he and colleagues hoped to deploy 70 seismometers across Myanmar in 2017 to get a better image of the apparently subducting slab. 

According to the records of the Indian Meteorological Department, 41 earthquakes of 5.6 or lower magnitude have occurred within the coordinates 23.00­25.00ºN and 91.00­93.00ºE encompassing Tripura during the period 1970 to 2000. The city was severely damaged by an earthquake of 8.7 magnitudes in the year 1897 when the royal palace was also fully destroyed. Earthquakes of high magnitude over the last 200 years in the region are Earthquake of 10 January 1869 (Magnitude 7.5), Shillong plateau earthquake of 12 June 1897 (8.7), Srimangal earthquake of 1918 (7.6), Dubri earthquake of 1930 (7.1), Assam earthquake of 15 August 1950 (8.5).