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Tripura : Return of militancy
Subir Bhaumik Former BBC Correspondent
Tripura : Return of militancy
PHOTO : Surrendered NLFT Ultras in North Tripura. TIWN File Photo

The recent upsurge in NLFT activity should be treated as alarm bells by an complacent Tripura government.

Though the recent kidnappings by the NLFT has been in Mizoram, the Tripura government can ignore the spurt only at Tripura's peril .

Some police officials and politicians say the border fencing has made a resurgence of insurgency in Tripura impossible, little realizing that the state's eastern borders with Chittagong Hill Tracts can never
be fenced properly -- or fenced at all -- because of the rugged nature of terrain.

Historically, the Hill Tracts has been the happy hunting group and the base area for Tripura insurgents since the days of the Sengkrak in the 1960s.

The real cause for NLFT or any other Tripura insurgent group taking off big time is because of the zero tolerance of Hasina's government and the pressure exerted on the security forces in our neighbouring country by the political leadership to hit out at the rebels , be they from ethnic militant groups of India's Northeast or local Islamist radicals. 

That is why the Islamist radicals are fleeing to West Bengal where they get all the sanctuary and support they need to thrive.

Moment this pressure is gone, the NLFT will be able to revive itself again.

File Photo by bdnews24 : ATTF headquarter, Satcherri jungles,Bangladesh. Arms haul by Bangladesh Special Forces RAB-9 


But remote regions of Chittagong Hill Tracts like the Northern Sajek ranges ( where NLFT bases now are mostly based) are still not accessible and Bangladesh security forces have limited capability of
hitting these areas .

That explains why the NLFT, specially its Panther regiment, has been able to regroup in this area and operate on the Mizoram-Tripura axis.
They have avoided taking on security forces , lest they face determined counter insurgency action from both sides of the border.

They have restricted themselves to rebuilding their finances that lay in tatters.

Tripura managed to crush tribal militancy in the early 2000 by determined police action, trans-border surrogate assaults and superb area domination by the Tripura State Rifles (TSR) one of the best
forces of its kind in the country now.

That aggresive policy of counter insurgency was initiated after years of pussyfooting when the Left Front lost the 2000 TTADC elections and the long shadow of the NLFT-ATTF loomed large on the next state polls.

Driven to the wall, Manik Sarkar and his comrades finally tried to live up to the legacy of the potraits of leaders that hangs in its party offices -- specially Stalin.

But once the insurgency was crushed and the Front started winning all the elections again, complacency creeped in.


This is what may cost the state dearly.

An insurgent force is not defeated until its ranks are eliminated and its leaders neutralised.

Though the ATTF is nearly defunct, the NLFT has managed to induct new leaders and retained some of their older ones.

Its leadership nucleus is still largely intact despite the breakaway factions giving up in the early 2000.

And this time on, the NLFT may change bits hill insurgency tactics and use more techniques of modern terrorism .

Major towns rather than remote settler villages may be targetted by explosions , specially during festivities

Intelligence reports suggests that the NLFT has sent a team of its best fighters to the NDFB in Assam .

The Bodo rebels usually enjoy the reputation of being the best explosive experts among northeast insurgents and the NLFT has shared bases and funds, manpower and its Christianity driven ideology with
the NDFB.

My own hunch is that next time on, the NLFT will not waste time hitting Bengali villages in remote areas.  They would rather bomb a few towns that may provoke retaliation on tribals and on non-tribals
in rural areas . They may follow it up with a few select assassinations.

Once the writ of terror is re-established, they will start extortions and a panic-driven population will start to pay up.

And with no police leadership worth its name now, it will be difficult for the forces to fight back the way they did under B L Vohra,  G M Srivastava and K Saleem Ali.

 

(Mr. Subir Bhaumik is a veteran journalist, former BBC correspondant and author of  two well acclaimed books ‘Insurgent Crossfire’ and ‘Troubled Periphery’) 

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